Democratic Transformation in Egypt: Controlled Reforms…Frustrated Hopes

The past few years have carried both great hopes and deep frustrations for the future of democratization in Egypt. The country witnessed a significant national referendum; two major elections, presidential and parliamentary, in September and November–December 2005 respectively; the formation of a pro-reform movement; and a remarkable political vitality. It is uncertain, however, whether these developments will place Egypt on the threshold of a sustainable democratic transformation. The regime is still well entrenched and in control of the agenda and the pace of reform. It continues to enjoy the support of external actors. The country’s licensed political opposition is weak and divided, the newly emerging pro-reform movements have been unable to address the serious problem of public apathy, and their ability to sustain the reform momentum is questionable. Egypt presents a typical case of an authoritarian or a semi-authoritarian regime that suffers from an erosion of legitimacy and popularity, low capacity to address the economic and social problems of large segments of society, a crisis of political succession, and mounting domestic and external pressures for reform. This has prompted the regime to introduce a series of measures that allowed the country, for the first time in its post-1952 Revolution history, to have multicandidate presidential elections and relatively more contested legislative elections. These reforms still fall short of placing Egypt on the path of a serious democratic transition.